A Mathematical Chance

Posted by Moses on February 23, 2009 under NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC, WA | 9 Comments to Read

That innings loss to the Mexican’s is but a small hickup on the road to our 46th Sheffield Shield.

First, lets have a look at the table with two rounds to go. Sure sitting in 5th place on 16 points is not ideal, and with Tassie sitting pretty on 24 and our not getting a chance to play them, we’re banking a lot on an implosion of note on the apple isle.

Obviously NSWales will get outright victories from our remaining two matches, finishing our regular season on 28 points. Here’s the events beyond our control that also needs to fall into place for us to retain our title:

Tassie to gain at most 4 points from VIC and SA. This would force a tie, however we’d likely make it through on equal outright victories (4) and a better quotient.
QLD to not beat VIC outright
WA to get 0 points from our match

Then we’ll meet the VICs at the MCG for the Final where they’ll choke as is their custom. Easy As.

Fixtures

Thu 26 – Sun 1 Tasmania v Victoria, Hobart
Thu 26 – Sun 1 Queensland v New South Wales, Brisbane
Thu 26 – Sun 1 Western Australia v South Australia, WACA
Thu 5 – Sun 8 New South Wales v Western Australia, SCG
Thu 5 – Sun 8 South Australia v Tasmania, Adelaide
Thu 5 – Sun 8 Victoria v Queensland, MCG

Tags: mathematical chance, Sheffield Shield

Jonathan said,

So we’re banking on the Mexicans to keep winning until they face us again? It’d be great to see them lose all three finals…

Jonathan’s last blog post..Is six enough for North to get six?

[Reply to this]
Moses Reply:
February 23rd, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Pretty much, I’m actually happy that they’re in the final.. it’ll be so sweet to take the third one from them at home.

On the very small chance that the Blues don’t make it, I’ll be 100% behind the ‘away’ team…

btw, fancy a link swap?

[Reply to this]
Nesta said,

Keep on dreaming Mo. Tassie are in the box seat and with the final not at the MCG they are a good bet.

[Reply to this]
Moses Reply:
February 24th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Will your fearless leader be back for the final, if you are to make it?

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Nesta Reply:
February 24th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Of course Dan Marsh will be there leading from the front. If you are referring to Ponting he lives in NSW. You lot can have him.

He isn’t too popular at Bellerive and even when he does play (once in the last three years I think)Dan, son of Rod, is still the skipper.

Nesta’s last blog post..Bushrangers Booted from MCG

[Reply to this]
Moses Reply:
February 24th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
I recall the last time he did play there Ponting was captain, and made a very ballsy declaration…

actually, here’s what I wrote about that at the time

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Nesta said,

You are right Mo and I was at that match.

Adcock tossed the coin for SA but Lehmann set the fields and changed the bowlers while Ponting tossed the coin for TAS and Marsh set the fields and changed the bowlers.

As for the declaration I cannot say if it was Ponting or Marsh but I reckon Ricky would have made the final decision although I reckon it was Dan’s idea. Haven’t seen Ricky do anything remotely similar since but I have seen Dan Marsh being very creative and bold many, many times.

Nesta’s last blog post..Bushrangers Booted from MCG

[Reply to this]
Jonathan said,

Not a good start.

[Reply to this]
Moses Reply:
February 25th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
True, but a good recovery and the GABBA’s not known for huge runs this year.

[Reply to this]